In Lebanon, the victories of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the battlefield in 2024 risk being undermined, much like they were in 1982, by U.S. diplomacy. The Biden administration’s final days and the cautious approach of the incoming Trump team create a volatile mix that could lead to disaster.
Back in 1982, the IDF crossed the Litani River, advancing to Beirut, where Yasser Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) went into hiding. While Israel succeeded in devastating the PLO’s top ranks, U.S. intervention, led by Envoy Philip Habib, prevented the complete eradication of its leadership. Habib’s mission was twofold: facilitate Arafat’s escape to a safe haven and decouple Israeli policy from Lebanon’s newly elected president, allowing the U.S. to regain diplomatic initiative and promote stability. While Habib succeeded, the outcome was disastrous for both Israel and Lebanon. Arafat continued to orchestrate attacks against Israel from exile, including instigating the first Intifada, while Lebanon failed to secure a peace agreement with Israel, after the assassination by Syrian agents of president B. Gemayel and, fell under Syria’s influence.
Today, a similar scenario is unfolding. From 2023 through September 2024, U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein worked tirelessly to shield Hezbollah’s leadership, aiming to prevent Israel from launching a full-scale ground incursion. While the IDF focused on securing its northern border by eliminating key Hezbollah commanders, Hochstein negotiated to protect the top leadership, who sought refuge in Beirut. Once Israel succeeded in eliminating Hezbollah’s most senior figures, Hochstein shifted his efforts to negotiating with the remaining Shia leadership, particularly Speaker of the House Nabih Berri. The U.S. rationale was that Berri could broker a ceasefire with Hezbollah. In reality, Hezbollah had little choice but to agree, as it was already on the back foot. Nevertheless, the U.S. remains heavily invested in maintaining Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, much as it did with the PLO in 1982. Hochstein even proposed a reconstruction plan for southern Lebanon, to be supervised by the U.S. (and potentially marred by corruption), with funding from Qatar, along with a plan to integrate former Hezbollah fighters into the Lebanese Armed Forces.
These diplomatic moves have significantly undermined Israel’s military achievements, granting political legitimacy to a weakened Hezbollah and its allies. Meanwhile, other factions in Lebanon—the so-called “salad bowl” of communities—have been alienated. They watch as the U.S. re-engages with Iran’s proxies despite Israel’s battlefield successes. Already, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has traveled to Damascus to meet with Syrian rebel leader al-Jolani, while the Sunni masses cheer him and the rebel factions in Syria. Any hope of reviving peace talks with Lebanon now hinges on developments in Syria. Once again, Lebanon’s political fate is intertwined with Syria, largely due to the U.S.’s clumsy diplomacy.
Trump’s involvement in Lebanon has also been less than helpful. The appointment of Massad Boulos, a former car salesman with scant local credentials, as the U.S. point man for Lebanon, was a diplomatic misstep. Until recently, Boulos was associated with Michel Aoun’s movement, which is closely aligned with both Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad.
Should the ceasefire not be fully implemented, the IDF should consider establishing a demilitarized zone (DMZ) to secure Israel’s northern border. Politically, however, the U.S. must make a dramatic shift. With assistance from Gulf Arab nations, the U.S. should refocus its efforts on Lebanon’s factions that are open to a full ceasefire, the return to the 1949 armistice agreement, and the initiation of peace talks. These groups, representing all of Lebanon’s communities—including moderate Shia factions, excluding Hezbollah et al—are critical to any lasting peace. Without this pivot, the U.S. risks allowing Turkish influence in Syria and Qatari funding to stoke radical movements in Lebanon into a position of total hostility to any peace accord, turning Lebanon once again into a thorn in Israel’s side.