All eyes are on the U.S. elections including those of the Mullahs in Iran and those of the Israeli government and especially the PM. We can hardly decipher what the Mullahs are thinking after their S-300 radars have been put out of action by the latest Israeli strike and after their long-range missiles have been severally curtailed. However, we can try and extrapolate what the Israeli government intends to do, irrespective who wins the U.S. elections. There is a window of opportunity till the 5th of January that the Israelis would want/like to explore, and it includes:
- Taking a bold action in Gaza
- Intensifying the destruction of Hezbollah’s human and physical assets in Lebanon
- Destroying the nuclear facilities of Iran
In Gaza, all negotiations with Hamas in Cairo and Doha seem to have failed, after the assassination of Sinwar, due to Hamas’ insistence on a total cease fire before the release of even four hostages. Both Cairo and Doha are fed up defending a terrorist group that is leaderless and aimless. Once Israel realizes that a deal is totally out of reach then all bets are off. Gaza would become an open war field for the IDF at a much higher intensity than ever witnessed in the past. Even if in the meantime all hostages are killed, they would be remembered as the victims of the Second Holocaust. Most likely, the Israeli government would fall, after the war. But that’s a price that the Israeli decision-makers, including Likud and the right, are willing to pay. Netanyahu, who is an astute student of history, knows that even Churchill did not survive politically after he led the UK to victory in WWII. Churchill is remembered still and sometimes rules from the grave, and so would Bibi.
In Lebanon, the military campaign is going unabated. Not a single protest, or a mass demonstration, or a campus strike, or a serious campaign has taken place or is being waged inside or outside the region, even in sympathetic capitals like Berlin, Paris, London or Detroit! Hezbollah has no friends it seems, neither at home (its own community having produced most of the valuable intelligence that caused the downfall of its combatants and leadership) nor in the near-afar (in the Arab countries including Syria or Iraq, let alone Iran) or the rest of the world (Asia, America, Europe or Africa). South Africa which got excited about trying Israel before the International Court of Justice for the alleged crimes committed by the IDF in Gaza did not move one inch towards incriminating Israel over its devastating attacks on villages, towns and cities in Lebanon. Why this silence? Because Hezbollah, apart from some fringe supporters, is viewed by the world as a narco-trafficking terror organization. That’s the truth and that’s why its systematic dismemberment by the IDF will go unchallenged irrespective who dwells in the Oval Office this winter.
On Iran, the stakes are higher, and the game is clearer. Iran must return to the family of nations by force, if necessary. Iran is too important as an energy producer and as a trade route. Such a nation cannot be left in the hands of the Mullahs whose feverish religious zeal brought the country to its knees and the region to the brink of total war. For NATO, Iran is an unwelcome player on the Ukrainian front in terms of the support it offers Russia in this European conflict. So, Iran’s long-range missiles and its nuclear sites will be most likely damaged by surgical Israeli strikes no matter whether Trump or Harris comes on top by tomorrow. A serious blow to the Iranian regime is good for Israel, for the Gulf Arabs, for the Levant, for the energy markets (as more development projects would bring additional capacity and help reduce prices), for international trade (as the Red Sea corridor would be safe after Iran is defanged and its cronies in Yemen obliterated), and it is mostly good for the Iranian people who aim for Teheran to become more like Tel Aviv and Dubai, thriving cities in the desert, rather than remaining a city with its lights out.
For these reasons the U.S. elections are less important in terms of strategic decision for the State of Israel. Rather, what would be affected if one candidate or another wins, is the timing of such decisions and targets. A Democratic win would accelerate Israel’s military plans while a Republican win would give it more leeway and deliver early relief in terms of supplies in arms and ammunitions.