Lebanon is a failed State. It is a status that has increased in intensity since 2005 leading to a total failure of its economy in 2019, and a breakdown in governmental institutions since 2020. To limit failure to this period would be charitable towards Lebanon which, since inception in 1943, witnessed chronic lapses starting in 1958, and 1969, and 1973, and finally in 1975, the official start of the civil war. That, lasted 15 years and its effects lingered farther with a spill over onto the present times.
To be fair Lebanon is a challenging case of geo-politics in its literal meaning both geographically and politically.
Geographically, modern day Lebanon is squeezed between Syria -who has claimed dominion over its territories as part of Greater Syria – and Israel -who treated its South as a danger zone since the declaration of Fateh Land (1969). In the recent -not ancient- past, the South was the passageway for conquerors coming via Egypt be it Napoleon II (1798) or Mohammad Ali Pasha (1831) or General Allenby (1916). The North was the conduit for Arab-inflicted trauma. Nasser used local Arabists and the free press against Israel, the PLO used the soil as an advanced military post, then Asad used Lebanon as a hostage country to press his advantage with the U.S. and ransom back the Golan Heights and failed. Now Iran is using its people as cannon fodder in its negotiations with the U.S. to preserve its regime and nuclear program.
Politically, the fragility of modern Lebanon was never helped by the fatally ambitious projects of its rival communities. So, the seeds of failure were and still are internal, not external. Despite all the allegations to the contrary, Lebanon’s successive wars were not caused by foreign interferences. The natives have had a great deal -if not a decisive one- in inciting, inviting and exciting all foreign interventions. Going back in past times, the mountaineers of Lebanon in 1840 gave Lord Palmerston -and not the other way around- the perfect excuse to rally Russia, Prussia and Austria, alongside with the Ottoman Empire to blockade then invade Lebanon, in the process of freeing it from the Egyptian occupation of Muhammad Ali, the Viceroy of Egypt. Same with the Lebanese warring factions in 1860, which led to the Expeditionary Force of Napoleon III. Then, in 1958 internal strife led to the landing of the U.S. Marines in Beirut. Both the 1978 and 1982 Israeli invasions were caused by intense internal warring giving further causes for the invasions. Same could be said of the 2006 war and the current one.
Failure is not only depicted if one’s country does not have an efficient banking regulatory system or a proper tax department or porous borders, or massive public deficits, or Palestinian military camps on its soil, or incohesive armed forces or a disunited political discourse or communities that are not on speaking terms. Failure starts with not recognizing all these shortcomings, and failure continues by blaming all of it onto the ‘others’ who include, amongst many, the Ottoman Empire, the Sykes-Picot accord, the creation of the State of Israel, Arab nationalism the PLO, and all the way to the U.S. and to whomever is the flavor of the day to take the blame.
Today Israel is waging a merciless war against its arch enemy: Iran and its proxies. The government of Lebanon is paralyzed not only by fear of Israeli action and Iranian retaliation, but because the country is divided. It is divided between those who view Israel’s actions as a naked aggression against the country and those who are cheering it to rid Lebanon of a cancer called Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons.
Besides this deep, internal division, Lebanon has no official interlocutor to take the reins of any future discussions for a cease fire or a peace settlement. Both the current PM and Jumblatt, the Druze leader, have lately uttered mitigated words that partly condemn Israel and partly blame Iran for excessive interference. They are both irrelevant even if they’re stating loudly what the Shia leader Berri cannot say openly. There will be no negotiations with a failed State whether a president is elect or not.
Israel will push its military advantage till January 2025, after a new U.S. president is ushered into the Oval Office. Then, it will stop and impose its conditions whether it is a Demilitarized Zone or a De-popularized Zone or any other plan to ensures total security on its Northern border.
The Lebanese could, in the aftermath, start rebuilding a federated nation that recognizes their differences, reflects their variances, and respect them lest they give the ‘others’ plenty of excuses -every few decades – to lend one of the local factions a helping hand in slaughtering another.